The hottest international crude oil price seems to

2022-08-15
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The international crude oil price is like a "runaway horse", with four factors acting at the same time

the international crude oil price is like a "runaway horse", with four factors acting behind it. Recently, crude oil futures prices in the international market have risen sharply and reached new highs. On the 6th, the futures price of light crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange broke through $97 a barrel, setting a record intraday price of $97.10 and a record closing price of $96.70, just one step away from the $100 mark. Market analysts pointed out that the growing global demand for crude oil, strong market speculation, the continued depreciation of the US dollar and the geopolitical tension in the Middle East are the four main factors driving the sharp rise in oil prices. The continuous growth of the global economy has led to a steady rise in crude oil demand, which is the basic market situation behind the record high oil prices - it is estimated that the average daily demand for crude oil in the world this year will be 85.9 million barrels, an increase of 1.5% over last year. Next year, the global average daily demand for crude oil will be 88million barrels, an increase of 2.4% over this year. In the medium and long term, the global average daily demand for crude oil will gradually increase, reaching 98million barrels in 2015

the market is weak, but if there are parts problems in the process of equipment measurement, it is strong to maintain a fragile balance. In recent years, with the continuous growth of the global economy, the demand for crude oil has increased steadily. The International Energy Agency released a report in October, saying that the average daily demand for crude oil in the world this year is expected to be 85.9 million barrels, an increase of 1.5% over last year; Next year, the global average daily demand for crude oil will be 88million barrels, an increase of 2.4% over this year. In the medium and long term, the global average daily demand for crude oil will gradually increase, reaching 98million barrels in 2015. According to the statistical data of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), we have established a solid partnership with customers and resin suppliers. With the increase of demand, the daily output of global crude oil is also rising. However, due to the strong demand and the Limited surplus production capacity of oil producing countries, the balance between supply and demand of crude oil in the international market is relatively fragile, so the oil price is vulnerable to other factors and violent fluctuations. Speculative transactions add fuel to the flames. In addition to the fundamentals of supply and demand, market speculation has also become an important factor driving up oil prices. With the sharp rise in oil prices, a large number of "speculative traders" have entered the international crude oil futures trading market for speculation and profit seeking activities. It is estimated that the total volume of crude oil futures trading contracts controlled by the huge speculative funds entering the crude oil futures trading market in New York is more than 1billion barrels, which is even higher than the sum of U.S. crude oil commercial inventories and strategic oil reserves

according to the financial times 6, major energy consumers and market speculators have recently bought a large number of options contracts that will not stop working on the crude oil bullish body, trying to prevent the risk of crude oil prices rising to more than $100 a barrel. According to the report, traders and banks revealed that when the crude oil price rose to an all-time high of $96.24 per barrel last week, there was an extremely enthusiastic buying climax in the crude oil call option contract. Some market traders have even begun to guard against the risk that oil prices will rise by more than $250 a barrel in the next two years through option trading. This phenomenon fully illustrates the market's expectation of further rise in crude oil prices in the future. The crisis in the U.S. subprime mortgage market and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar have helped speculative funds enter the crude oil futures market. This summer, after the full outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, major global financial markets were seriously affected, and some speculative funds flowed into the crude oil futures market to avoid the risks brought by the stock market turmoil. The depreciation of the US dollar has led to a surge in oil prices - affected by the Federal Reserve Board's reduction of short-term interest rates twice in a row this year, the sharp depreciation of the US dollar has made oil prices cheaper than investors holding euros and other currencies, and these investors have also begun to buy large quantities of crude oil futures trading contracts

when analyzing the reasons for the rise in international oil prices, Talal bazari, a Kuwaiti oil expert, pointed out that the depreciation of the US dollar is the primary factor among the many factors for the rise in global oil prices. He also predicted that as long as the dollar continued to weaken, oil prices would soar all the way. In an interview with Kuwait News Agency, he said: the international oil price recently peaked at $97 a barrel, which was close to twice the oil price at the beginning of the year, while the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro fell by nearly 30% over the same period. A large part of the increase in oil prices is used by Gulf oil producing countries to make up for the economic losses caused by the depreciation of the US dollar. This is because major oil producing countries use the US dollar as the settlement currency for crude oil exports, and use the euro to import required goods from Europe. In this way, although the Gulf countries have achieved high fiscal surpluses, the import costs have increased due to the continuous decline of the US dollar against the euro, resulting in a general rise in domestic inflation. Talele called on OPEC countries to use the euro as the settlement currency for crude oil exports in order to reduce losses. However, considering the need for Gulf oil producing countries to maintain friendly relations with the United States, it seems difficult to abandon the dollar in the current political reality. Political climate factors affect supply and demand, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also one of the factors driving up oil prices. The protracted dispute over the Iranian nuclear issue and the news that the Turkish army may cross the border to attack the PKK armed forces in northern Iraq have raised concerns about the possible impact of crude oil supply in the region. Iran and Iraq are both OPEC member countries. If the crude oil production and export of the two countries are reduced due to geopolitical events, it will have a great impact on the crude oil supply in the international market. In addition, the peak consumption of heating oil in the northern hemisphere in winter is coming, the oil production in the United States and Mexico may be affected by weather factors, and the recent sharp decline in crude oil inventories in the United States have played a certain role in the repeated innovation of oil prices, and the development of the extractor industry still has a large market space. Analysts pointed out that at present, oil prices in the international market have entered a "high sensitive area". If traders take profit taking operations in line with the bad news of oil prices, the trend of oil prices is likely to repeat the scene of the second half of last year and fall after a sharp surge. However, if traders continue to buy a large number of crude oil futures contracts in line with the good news of oil prices, oil prices may rise further

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