Overview and future forecast of the hottest refine

2022-10-18
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Product oil market overview and aftermarket forecast (August 2-august 10)

this week, the high international oil price deviated from the current domestic pricing mechanism, and the heavy refinery losses were confronted with the increasing demand for oil products. On the one hand, the main business units had insufficient resource allocation, stopped batch control and sales to ensure zero, the price was constantly rising, the wholesale and retail price was everywhere, and on the other hand, the social units had difficulties in purchasing goods, and the local refineries were reluctant to sell and hoard goods, In the face of the ever-changing oil price and the rumors of price adjustment, I was panicked. Just as autumn has entered, the stock replenishment market is surging around the market, which is beyond the imagination of the market and beyond the expectations of the city people

recent market factors

(1) increased demand

continuous extremely hot and rainy weather, severe drought occurred in some parts of eastern and central China. At the same time, some parts of eastern China broke through the maximum power load, the power supply situation became tighter, drought resistance, and power generation oil increased. With the advent of summer, the oil consumption of vehicle air conditioning is increasing, and the number of private car trips is increasing, driving the rise of gasoline consumption. The two-month fishing moratorium in the South China Sea ended on August 1, and the Ministry of agriculture adjusted the fishing moratorium of shrimp dragging in the East China Sea this year. Zhejiang and other provinces lifted the ban in advance to August 1. The demand for fishery oil gradually rebounded, driving the growth of diesel market consumption

(2) supply reduction

this week, the southeast coast was hit by many typhoons, and the release of refined oil into the sea was hindered, which had a great impact on the transportation of refined oil in coastal areas such as Zhejiang and Fujian

due to the high international oil price, the purchase and sales of refineries are upside down, and the production is lack of enthusiasm, especially the production of diesel. This month, the two major groups increased their gasoline export plans, which boosted the gasoline market, and users increased their gasoline hoarding. This month, the overhaul of PetroChina northeast refinery weakened the resource allocation of xiahai oil and the local government in order to ensure the distribution of resources entering the customs. There are many maintenance plans for refineries in the Yangtze River Delta, and at the same time, there are many local refineries entering the maintenance. In the intermittent rumors of price adjustment, the reluctance of refineries to sell has increased, and the inventory of products and intermediate products has increased

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at present, it is the peak of passenger transport in the summer. The railway system protects passengers and goods, and the railway freight is affected. Recently, the number of tank cars under the administration of Beijing Railway Administration has decreased by nearly 30%; The Ministry of Railways prohibits the mixing of chemical light oil tanks and finished oil tanks, resulting in the reduction of refinery owned tank cars and affecting the arrival of resources. The oil entering the port of Dalian is reduced, and the sea transportation is affected by the typhoon weather, so it cannot operate. The resources of the coastal markets are tight, and the transportation is blocked for a long time, so the plan cannot be completed on time

in recent months, refineries have been reluctant to sell because of high processing costs, declining operating rates, and resource constraints, and the mutual supply of gasoline between SINOPEC and PetroChina has been further reduced

due to the lack of production of inorganic materials, inorganic fiber materials, organic high molecular material fibers and other new materials, the supply gap of refined oil still needs to be filled by PetroChina and Sinopec. The domestic oil market is based on the balance of supply and demand of diesel oil, which will inevitably lead to the abundance of gasoline in technology. Therefore, the amount of exported gasoline has become an important means to regulate the supply of domestic refined oil. This year, driven by interests, China's gasoline exports have increased month by month. In June, China exported 526458 tons of gasoline, a year-on-year increase of 340.3%, imported 2.7 million tons of fuel oil, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%, exported 29033 tons of light diesel oil, a year-on-year decrease of 75.9%, and imported 24432 tons of light diesel oil, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%. Exports increased. However, since August, the two groups have reduced gasoline exports. According to market news, the two groups have significantly reduced gasoline exports in their export plans in August, and the export volume is the lowest since September last year

in order to cope with the shortage of resources and realize the main supply, the two groups reduced the allocation resources of companies outside the region on the basis of reducing the plans of Companies in the region, and required companies outside the region to focus on retail sales. Under this influence, the resource forces of the two groups are generally different, and the supply pressure is inclined to one side, which increases the atmosphere of resource tension

the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the 4th, requiring PetroChina and Sinopec to do everything possible to increase market supply to ensure the supply of refined oil in the market; It is required that all refined oil business enterprises, especially retail enterprises, shall not hoard and sell. The national development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice requiring PetroChina and Sinopec to strictly control the export of refined oil products

(3) the market is booming

the price of refined gasoline is rising. Northern Shaanxi underground railway: 90 gasoline 5230 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5000 yuan/ton. Shaanxi Dilian highway: Yanlian highway 90 gasoline 5150 yuan/ton, 93 gasoline 5650 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5030 yuan/ton. Yongping refinery highway 90 gasoline 5200 yuan/ton, +5 diesel 5030 yuan/ton. Yulin refinery highway 90 gasoline 5340 yuan/ton, +5# diesel 5130 yuan/ton. This week, Shandong local refined gasoline prices rose strongly, with the average price of 90 × gasoline rising by 70 yuan/ton, 93 × gasoline rising by 80 yuan/ton, diesel prices slightly calm, and 0 × diesel rising by 39 yuan/ton. Mainstream quotation: 90 × gasoline yuan/ton, 93 × gasoline yuan/ton, 0 × diesel yuan/ton. The reasons are analyzed. Due to the tightening of resources in various regions, the control of wholesale by main business units, and the generally low inventory of local refining products, the resources are relatively concentrated, and the relatively low price of local refining products are favored by users, which naturally pushes up the price. Huaxing and Kenli 90 # gasoline have stopped, and Haike and Fuhai 93 # gasoline are out of stock

this week, most regions in China rose steadily. Due to the shortage of PetroChina resources and the rumors of raising the standard price in the market, in order to strive for the best economic benefits and guide the market, Sinopec, represented by North China Hebei, Henan, East China Jiangxi, Jiangsu and southwest Guizhou, once again built up the market and launched another small promotion of gasoline and diesel. Social units have strengthened their awareness of hoarding oil, have a serious mentality of reluctant to sell, and increase the channels to find oil for sale. Due to the shortage of resources, Fujian, Guangdong and other places have seen wholesale and retail prices or wholesale and retail upside down. The "energy crisis" of the market in August is about to kick off

the price of water and land is the same. This week, the price of domestic refined oil has been further higher than that in the previous period, supported by a variety of factors, such as the continuous high international oil price, rumors of price adjustment, tightening gasoline resources, promising diesel demand, stable and rising wholesale prices along the coastal river and waterway, and higher local refining prices. Gasoline resources are scarce, and there are few quotations for other varieties, or vehicles and ships have the same price

climate is a sensitive factor affecting terminal consumption. This week, the country was affected by many typhoons, of which the impact on East China was the strongest. There was stormy weather, and retail sales fell sharply. However, once the climate turned sunny, retail sales recovered quickly

the non-standard oil in coastal areas is approaching the median price. With the recovery of fishery demand, the high diesel price may force some users to favor non-standard diesel. The price of non-standard diesel in the coastal areas of Fujian has risen slightly to 5350 yuan/ton

due to the strengthening of the gasoline market, the profit margin of social business units operating ethanol gasoline has increased, and the sales volume of ethanol gasoline has increased

the two groups have taken measures in succession: 1) East China and other regions have started self procurement, but due to the lack of self procurement, some gas stations still have intermittent supply cuts. 2) Many provincial companies no longer emphasize the expansion of retail sales, but control the daily sales of gas stations. 3) Strengthen ex warehouse inspection, and punish those who exceed the plan and illegally refuel or fill barrels for self-employed tank trucks

late market forecast

at present, the tension in the domestic market is partly due to the lack of confidence in the operating rate of refineries and the fear of the ability of production enterprises to put on the market, partly due to the impact of the international oil market, especially the uncertain grasp of domestic price adjustment, which brings more panic, and partly due to the measures taken by operators to maximize profits and reduce losses to the lowest point

from the perspective of the international oil market, geopolitical influence is still the main support of the international crude oil market in the near future: a series of unstable factors such as the floating tropical storm, the situation in Nigeria, and the haunting terrorist organizations will affect the international oil market for a long time

in August, the engineering, transportation, electric power and industrial oil are in the high load operation stage, especially the continuous high temperature and the severe drought in many provinces in southwest and central China will increase the vehicle fuel consumption by about 15% compared with other months. The southeast coastal waters are gradually ending the two-month fishing moratorium, which also has a great pulling effect on the demand for diesel oil

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